ÿþ<html> <head> <title> Joy E. Hecht, East Africa Climate Change</title> </head> <body background="bg-white-white.gif" link="#990066" vlink="black"> <table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr><td width=800 height=6 bgcolor="black"></td></tr> <tr><td width=800 height=6></td></tr></table> <table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr><td width=148 align=right> <font face="gill sans MT" color=#000000 size=3> <b><i><h3>Dr. Joy E. Hecht</h3><br> costs of<br>climate change<br>in East Africa<br></b></td> <td width=20 height=1></td> <td width=632><img src="Fisher's lovebirds.gif"></td></tr> <td width=6 height=1></td> <tr><td width=800 colspan=7 height=6></td></tr> <tr><td width=800 colspan=7 height=6 bgcolor="black"></td></tr> <tr><td width=800 colspan=7 height=6></td></tr> </table> <table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr><td width=148 valign=top> <table border=0 cellpadding=0 cellspacing=0> <tr><td width=148 height=30></td></tr> <tr><td width=148 align=right valign=top> <font face="lucida sans" color="white" size=2> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/professional/consulting.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-cons.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/gypsy.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-travels.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/postgypsy/postgypsy.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-postgypsy.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/backontheroad/backontheroad.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-backontheroad.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/arts/arts.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/arts.png"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/contacts.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-contacts.gif"></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/index.html"><img src="http://www.joyhecht.net/buttons-and-bgs/button-home.gif"></a></p> </td></tr></table> </td> <td width=20 height=1></td> <td width=6 height=400 bgcolor="black"></td> <td width=40 height=1></td> <td width=586 valign=top> <font face="Gill sans MT" color=#000000 size=3> <br> <p><b>References</b></p> <font face="Gill sans MT" color=#000000 size=2> <p><b>Note:</b> All source URLs shown below for the studies in the reference list were correct as of March, 2011. Copies of many of these studies are also available at this website by following the "here" links.</p> </p>Brown, Sally, Abiy S. Kebede and Robert J. Nicholls, 2009. "Sea Level Rise and Impacts in Africa, 2000 to 2100" School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK Available at <a href="http://www.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/Portals/133/documents/AdaptCost/9%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Report%20Jan%202010.pdf">www.unep.org/climatechange/adaptation/Portals/133/documents/AdaptCost/9%20Sea%20Level%20Rise%20Report%20Jan%202010.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Brown et al Sea Level Rise.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Bundervoet, Tom, Philip Verwimp, and Richard Akresh, 2007. "Health and Civil War in Rural Burundi." Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn, Discussion Paper Number 2951. Available at <a href="ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp2951.pdf">ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp2951.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Bundervoet, Verwimp, Akresh Health & Civil War Burundi 2007.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Cline, William, <i>Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country</i>. (Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development, 2007) Available (one chapter per file) at <a href="http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/14090#Chpt">http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/14090#Chpt</a>. <br><br> Collier, Paul. 1999.  On the Economic Consequences of Civil War. <i>Oxford Economic Papers</i> 51(1): 168 183. Available at <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.17.8716">http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.17.8716</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Collier econ causes of war 2000.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, and Jianping Yan, February 2007. "The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136, February 2007 Available at <a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=962790">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/ papers.cfm?abstract_id=962790</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Dasgupta_SLR&Pop_WBS4136_2007.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Siobhan Murray, and David Wheeler, September 2009. "Climate Change and the Future Impacts of Storm-Surge Disasters in Developing Countries." Center for Global Development Working Paper 182. Available at <a href="http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1422836/">http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1422836/</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Dasgupta_Future_Storm_Surge_Disasters_CenterGlobalDev_2009.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Günther, Isabel and Kenneth Harttgen, 2006a. "Households' Vulnerability to Covariate and Idiosyncratic Shocks." Preliminary draft. Available at <a href="http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19838/1/guenther.pdf">http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19838/1/guenther.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Gunther & harttgen methods for impact of shock 2006.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Günther, Isabel and Kenneth Harttgen, 2006b. "Estimating Vulnerability to Covariate and Idiosyncratic Shocks." Ibero-American Institute for Economic Research (Gottingen, Germany), Discussion Paper No. 154. Available at <a href="http://wwwuser.gwdg.de/~fjohann/paper/DB154.pdf">http://wwwuser.gwdg.de/~fjohann/paper/DB154.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/gunther & harttgen household impact of shocks.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Hesse, Ced and James MacGregor, October 2006. "Pastoralism: drylands invisible asset? Developing a framework for assessing the value of pastoralism in East Africa." (London, England: International Institute for Environment and Development, 2006) Available at <a href="http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/12534IIED.pdf">http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/12534IIED.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/IIED value of pastoralism.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Hinkel, Jochen and Richard J.T. Klein, 2009. "Integrating knowledge to assess coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: The development of the DIVA tool." Global Environmental Change 19 (2009) 384 395. Available at <a href="http://web.me.com/rjtklein/Site/Home_files/09hk_gec.pdf">http://web.me.com/rjtklein/Site/Home_files/09hk_gec.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Hinkel & Klein developing DIVA model.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Iglesias, Ana, and Cynthia Rosenzweig. 2010. "Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production under Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios: Data from a Crop Modeling Study." Palisades, NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), Columbia University. Available at <a href="http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/cropclimate/">http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/mva/cropclimate</a> (downloaded December 2010) <br><br> Imai, Kosuke and Jeremy Weinstein, 2000. "Measuring the Economic Impact of Civil War" CID Working Paper No. 51 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Center for International Development, June 2000) Available at <a href="http://imai.princeton.edu/research/files/cid.pdf">http://imai.princeton.edu/research/files/cid.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Imai & Weinberg econ impact of civil war 2000.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Jensen, R. 2000 "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children." <i>AER Papers and Proceedings</i>, Vol. 90 (2) pp. 399-404. Available at <a href="http://are.berkeley.edu/courses/ARE251/2004/papers/Jensen.pdf">http://are.berkeley.edu/courses/ARE251/2004/papers/Jensen.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Jensen Ag volatility children 2000.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Kebede, Abiy S., Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls, 2010. "Synthesis Report: The Implications of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise in Tanzania  The Coastal Zones." Report submitted to the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI). Available at <a href="http://economics-of-cc-in-tanzania.org/images/Tanzania_coastal_report_draft_vs_2_1_.pdf">http://economics-of-cc-in-tanzania.org/images/Tanzania_coastal_report_draft_vs_2_1_.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Kebede et al Tanzania SLR.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Kebede, Abiy S. and Robert J. Nicholls, 2011. "Population and Assets Exposure to Coastal Flooding in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania): Vulnerability to Climate Extremes." Report prepared by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research, Southampton, Highfield, UK. Submitted to the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (GCAP). Available at <a href="http://economics-of-cc-in-tanzania.org/images/Dar-es-Salaam_City-Analysis_Final-Report_1_.pdf">http://economics-of-cc-in-tanzania.org/images/Dar-es-Salaam_City-Analysis_Final-Report_1_.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Kebede et al Dar-es-Salaam_City-Analysis_coastal.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Meehl, G.A., T.F. Stocker, W.D. Collins, P. Friedlingstein, A.T. Gaye, J.M. Gregory, A. Kitoh, R. Knutti, J.M. Murphy, A. Noda, S.C.B. Raper, I.G. Watterson, A.J. Weaver and Z.-C. Zhao, 2007: "Global Climate Projections." In: <i>Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</i> [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Available at <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html">http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html</a>. <br><br> Nakicenovic, Nebojsa and Rob Swart (Eds.) <i>Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</i>. (Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC, 2000) Available from Cambridge University Press, UK or at <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0">http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0</a>. <br><br> Nathan Associates, 2011. "Corridor Diagnostic Study of the Northern and Central Corridors of East Africa, Draft Action Plan Volume 1: Main Report." Available at <a href="http://www.eastafricancorridors.org/cdsupdate">http://www.eastafricancorridors.org/cdsupdate</a>; main report also available <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Nathan Assoc East Africa Transport Corridors Diagnostic Study 2011.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Nelson, Gerald C., Mark W. Rosegrant, Amanda Palazzo, Ian Gray, Christina Ingersoll, Richard Robertson, Simla Tokgoz, Tingju Zhu, Timothy B. Sulser, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, and Liangzhi You, 2010. <i>Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options.</i> Advance Copy. (Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2010) Report and data available through <a href="http://www.ifpri.org/book-775/ourwork/researcharea/climate-change">http://www.ifpri.org/book-775/ourwork/researcharea/climate-change</a>. <br><br> Nillesen, E. and Verwimp, P., 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in rural Burundi." MICROCON Research Working Paper 25, Brighton: MICROCON. Available at <a href="http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP25_EN_PV.pdf">http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP25_EN_PV.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Nillesen & Verwimp Conflict & portfolio choice Burundi 2010.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Rahmstorf, S., 2007. "A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise." <i>Science</i>, 315: 368-370. Available at <a href="http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/rahmstorf_science_2007.pdf">http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Nature/rahmstorf_science_2007.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/rahmstorf_science_2007.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Sachs, Jeffrey D., Andrew D. Mellinger, and John L. Gallup, 2001 "The Geography of Poverty and Wealth." <i>Scientific American</i>, March 2001, pp.71-74. Available at <a href="http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidinthenews/articles/Sciam_0301_article.html">http://www.cid.harvard.edu/cidinthenews/articles/Sciam_0301_article.html</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Sachs geography of povery & wealth SciAm 2001.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Seo S. Niggol and Robert Mendelsohn, 2006a. "Climate change impacts on animal husbandry in Africa: a Ricardian analysis." CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 9, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria. Available at <a href="http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/cdp9.pdf">http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/cdp9.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Seo & Mendelsohn CC & livestock CEEPA paper no. 9 2006.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Seo S. Niggol and Robert Mendelsohn, 2006b. "Climate change adaptation in Africa: a microeconomic analysis of livestock choice." CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 19, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria. Available at <a href="http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/CDPNo19.pdf">http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/CDPNo19.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Seo & Mendelsohn Microeconomic analysis livestock CEEPA no. 19 2006.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Seo S Niggol and Robert Mendelsohn, 2006c. "The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa: a structural Ricardian analysis." CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 23, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria. Available at <a href="http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/CDPNo23.pdf">http://www.ceepa.co.za/docs/CDPNo23.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Seo & Mendelsohn Ricardian Analysis livestock CEEPA paper no. 23 2006.pdf">here</a> <br><br> Seo, S. Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009a  Adapting to Climate Change Mosaically: An Analysis of African Livestock Management by Agro-Ecological Zones, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy: Vol. 9: Iss. 2 (Contributions), Article 4. Available at <a href="http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol9/iss2/art4">http://www.bepress.com/bejeap/vol9/iss2/art4</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Seo et al livestock & CC adaptation by ecological zone.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Seo, S. Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Rashid Hassan, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2008, "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa." The World Bank Development Research Group, Sustainable Rural and Urban Development Team. April 2008. Policy Research Working Paper 4599. Available at <a href="http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4599.html">http://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/4599.html</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Seo et al Ricardian Analysis WB WP4599 2008.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Seo, S. Niggol, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Rashid Hassan, Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009b "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa" Environmental and Resource Economics (2009) 43:313 332 (This is a later version of the previous reference, but is not available for free download.) <br><br> Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.), 2007. <i>Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</i> (Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007) Available at <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_physical_science_basis.htm"> http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_ipcc_fourth_assessment_report_wg1_report_the_ physical_science_basis.htm</a>. <br><br> Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), 2009a. "The Economics of Climate Change in Kenya: Final report submitted in advance of COP 15" Available at <a href="http://kenya.cceconomics.org/kedo/FINAL-kenya-report-April.pdf">http://kenya.cceconomics.org/kedo/FINAL-kenya-report-April.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/SEI Economic impacts of CC Kenya 2009.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), 2009b. "The Economics of Climate Change in Rwanda." Available at <a href="http://rw.cceconomics.org/rwdo/Final%20Report.pdf">http://rw.cceconomics.org/rwdo/Final%20Report.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/SEI Economics of CC in Rwanda.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Tanser, F.T, Sharp. B, le Sueur, D. 2003. "Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa." <i>The Lancet</i> 362 (9398) : 1792-1798. Available at <a href="http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140673603148982/abstract">http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140673603148982/abstract</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Tanser 2003 malaria.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Tol, R. S. J. (1995),  The Damage Costs of Climate Change Toward More Comprehensive Calculations , <i>Environmental and Resource Economics</i>, 5, 353-374. Available at <a href="http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/tol/RM23.pdf">http://www.mi.uni-hamburg.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/tol/RM23.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Tol estimating damages from floods.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> UN Habitat, 2008. <i>State of the World s Cities 2008/2009 Harmonious Cities</i>. (London: Earthscan Publications for UN Habitat, 2008) Available at <a href="http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2562">http://www.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=2562</a>. <br><br> Voors , M., Nillesen, M., Verwimp, P., Bulte, E., Lensink, R. and van Soest, D., 2010. "Does Conflict affect Preferences? Results from Field Experiments in Burundi." MICROCON Research Working Paper 21, Brighton: MICROCON. Available at <a href="http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP21_MVetal.pdf">http://www.microconflict.eu/publications/RWP21_MVetal.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Voors et Sal Impacts of conflict on preferences Burundi.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> Williams, A. Park and Chris Funk, "A westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa." Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0984-y Published online 4 January, 2011. Available at <a href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/ u0352236x6n868n2/">http://www.springerlink.com/content/ u0352236x6n868n2/</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/Wiliams & Funk Clim.Dynamics 2011.pdf">here</a>. <br><br> World Health Organization 2004, "Global Burden of Disease 2004 Update: Disability Weights for Diseases And Conditions." Available at <a href="http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GBD2004_DisabilityWeights.pdf">http://www.who.int/healthinfo/global_burden_disease/GBD2004 DisabilityWeights.pdf</a> or <a href="http://www.joyhecht.net/East Africa Climate Change/GBD2004_DisabilityWeights.pdf">here</a>. </body>