Dr. Joy E. Hecht

costs of
climate change
in East Africa


Katharine Vincent
Consultant to International Resources Group

Principal, Kulima Integrated Development Solutions (Pty) Ltd
Hilton, South Africa

Note: All URLs for the studies discussed below were correct as of March, 2011.


This annex presents an annotated bibliography of vulnerability assessments (VA) in East Africa. As outlined in the methodology, there have been various approaches to VA. Traditional assessments look at model projections of climate change as related to particular areas of impact. In these cases vulnerability is typically the impact – what is left after climate change has occurred and any adaptation has taken place. This is also known as “end point” vulnerability, and is the approach typically taken with large scale assessments (at regional or national level). In contrast, smaller scale vulnerability assessments have typically assessed “starting point” vulnerability, i.e. the social and economic conditions that affect how well a community/household is likely to be able to withstand exposure to a climate hazard. These varying approaches are the reason that simply aggregating of existing research outputs was not possible for this study. However, various other vulnerability and impact assessments have been produced at various geographical levels and with differing areas of focus for the East Africa region, and some of the key ones are presented here, divided into different (but often overlapping) sections.

  1. National Communications and, where appropriate, National Adaptation Programs of Action. The former are obligatory for all signatories to the UNFCCC; the latter are required of all Least Developed Countries.
  2. Continent wide vulnerability assessments
  3. Cross-country vulnerability assessments
  4. Sectoral vulnerability assessments:
    1. Agriculture
    2. Livestock
    3. Health
    4. Energy
    5. Coasts
    6. Water
    7. Forestry
  5. Small-scale vulnerability assessments (to give an indication of sub-national assessments, which typically take a more qualitative and/or social-science based approach).

This annotated bibliography is not intended to be an exhaustive list. It includes key reports and papers but not presentations, and focuses particularly on those from reputable organizations. It also only includes those with explicit references to vulnerability and how it differs across space and time, excluding the many more studies that assume vulnerability and focus on adaptation options. In keeping with the regional focus of the study, national level assessments have been excluded (with the exception of the National Communications and NAPAs).

1. National Communications and NAPAs

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. 2007. "Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Ethiopia." Addis Ababa: Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/eth01.pdf or here.

Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. 2001. "Initial National Communication of Ethiopia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Addis Ababa: Ministry of Water Resources, National Meteorological Agency. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/ethnc1.pdf

Republic of Kenya. 2002. "First National Communication of Kenya to the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Nairobi: Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/kennc1.pdf

Republic of Rwanda. 2006. :NAPA Rwanda: National Adaptation Programmes of Action to Climate Change." Kigali: Ministry of Lands, Water, Forestry, Environment and Mines. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/rwa01e.pdf

Republic of Rwanda. 2005. "Initial National Communication Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Kigali: Ministry of Lands, Water, Forestry, Environment and Mines. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/rwanc1.pdf

Republic of Uganda. 2007. "Climate Change Uganda National Adaptation Programmes of Action." Kampala: Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/uga01.pdf

Republic of Uganda. 2002. "Uganda Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Kampala: Ministry of Water, Lands and Environment. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/uganc1.pdf

République de Djibouti. 2001. "Communication nationale initiale de la République de Djibouti à la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques." Djibouti: Ministère de l'Habitat, de l'Urbanisme, de l'Environnement et de l'Aménagement du Territoire. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/djinc1.pdf (in French)

République du Burundi. 2001. "Deuxième Communication Nationale sur les Changements Climatiques." Bujumbura: Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, du Tourisme, et de l’Environnement. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/burnc2.pdf (in French)

République du Burundi. 2007. "National Adaptation Plan of Action to Climate Change." Bujumbura: Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, du Tourisme, et de l’Environnement. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/bdi01e.pdf

République du Burundi. 2001. "Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changements Climatiques: Première Communication Nationale." Bujumbura: Ministère de l’Aménagement du Territoire, du Tourisme, et de l’Environnement. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/burnc1.pdf (in French)

State of Eritrea. 2007. "National Adaptation Programme of Action." Asmara: Ministry of Land, Water and Environment. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/eri01.pdf

State of Eritrea. 2002. "Eritrea’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Asmara: Ministry of Land, Water and Environment. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/erinc1.pdf

United Republic of Tanzania. 2007. "National Adaptation Programme of Action." Dar es Salaam: Vice President’s Office, Division of Environment. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/napa/tza01.pdf

United Republic of Tanzania. 2003. "Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change." Dar es Salaam: Ministry for Environment, Centre for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology. Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/tannc1.pdf

2. Continent-wide vulnerability assessments

Boko, M., I. Niang, A. Nyong, C. Vogel, A. Githeko, M. Medany, B. Osman-Elasha, R. Tabo and P. Yanda, 2007: Africa. "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability." Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, (eds) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 433-467. Available online at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch9.html

The Africa chapter of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report contains a comprehensive review of literature relating to adaptation, impacts and vulnerability to climate change across the continent, by sector. Among key findings of relevance to East Africa are the threat of coastal flooding due to sea level rise, changes in ecosystems, changed disease distribution, impacts on food security, and water stress.

Elasha, B.O., Medany, M., Diop, I.N., Nyong, T., Tabo, R., and C. Vogel. 2006. "Background paper on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Africa" for the African Workshop on Adaptation, Accra, Ghana, 21-23 September 2006. Available online at http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/adverse_effects_and_response_measures_art_48/application/pdf/ 200609_background_african_ wkshp.pd

This paper, almost a precursor to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (and written by many of the same authors), includes a review of key impacts and vulnerabilities to future climate change by sector (water resources, health, agriculture and food security, biodiversity, coastal zone and marine areas, and Millennium Development Goals), as well as of adaptation.

3. Cross-country vulnerability assessments

Adger, W. N., Brooks, S., Bentham, G., Agnew, M. and Eriksen, S. 2004. "New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity." Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Technical Report Number 7, Norwich. Available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/content/new-indicators-vulnerability-and-adaptive-capacity

This report outlines a number of diagnostic and predictive vulnerability and adaptive capacity indicators useful for cross-country comparison. The diagnostic ones were measured in terms of the outcome of climate-related disasters over a decadal time period (using data from the EM-DAT database). The predictive ones were based on publicly available data relating to social, economic, political and environmental factors, with candidate proxy variables likely to represent elements of vulnerability determined from a literature review and expert judgment. In terms of mortality related to discrete extreme events, health, education, and particularly governance indicators provide a reasonable assessment of vulnerability. The paper also discusses the options for combining and aggregating indices, and recommends dividing countries into groups and then summing, in order to avoid the false degree of confidence that comes from averaging.

Brooks N and Adger W N. 2003. "Country level risk measures of climate-related natural disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change." Tyndall Centre Working Paper 26. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. Available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/ content/country-level-risk-measures-climate-related-natural-disasters-and-implications-adaptation-cl

Using data for the number of people killed and otherwise affected by discrete climate-related natural disasters over the final decades of the 20th century as a proxy for climatic risk, this paper develops several proxies for risk and vulnerability from available data. Recognizing that disasters result from the intersection of hazard (the likelihood of occurrence and potential severity of events) and vulnerability (social, economic, political and physical factors that determine the amount of damage an event will cause), this paper shows the countries most at risk of climate change impacts. In East Africa, Kenya and Djibouti feature in the list.

Case, Michael. 2006. "Climate change impacts on East Africa: A review of the scientific literature." Washington DC: WWF. Available online at http://assets.panda.org/downloads/east_africa_climate_change_impacts_final_2.pdf

This cross-sectoral paper summarizes literature to date (2006) of the impacts of climate change by sector, including water availability, desertification, food security, human health and extreme weather events.

Eriksen, S., O’Brien, K. and Lynn Rosentrater. 2008. "Climate change in eastern and southern Africa: Impacts, vulnerability and adaptation." GECHS Report 2008:2, Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo. Available online at http://www.gechs.org/publications/reports/

This paper presents the multiple stresses at work in eastern and southern Africa that interact to create situations of vulnerability. These stresses include the HIV/AIDS pandemic, trade liberalization, competing pressures for land, agricultural policy changes, insecurity of land tenure, conflict (and migration); all of which are affected by global environmental change, urbanization and deagrarianization. All of these stresses affect people in different ways, depending on their age, gender, ethnicity, religion, and other social factors. The paper is very descriptive, with few case studies elaborated.

Füssel, H-M. 2009. "Review and quantitative analysis of indices of climate change exposure, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, and impacts." Background paper to the World Development Report 2010. Available online at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1255547194560/ WDR2010_BG_Note_Fussel.pdf

This comprehensive paper reviews theoretical approaches to vulnerability, and their implications for methods of vulnerability assessment, as well as discussing some of the major national level indicators/indices of vulnerability to climate change that have been constructed. It also presents a conceptual framework of vulnerability with the purpose of prioritizing adaptation assistance, distinguishing 5 groups of vulnerability factors and 2 groups of adaptability factors. Highly recommended.

Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC). 2007. "Climate change and human development in Africa: Assessing the risks and vulnerability of climate change in Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia." Human Development Report Office Occasional Paper. New York: UNDP. Available online at http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/global/hdr2007-8/papers/IGAD.pd

Summarizes vulnerabilities to/impacts of climate change across major domains (energy, water, agriculture/livestock/food security/health, coastal and marine resources, environment and biodiversity, human settlements) in Kenya, Malawi and Ethiopia; then outlines downscaled regional climate projections for 2030 and 2050; and discusses options for mainstreaming climate information in development.

Seitz, J. and W. Nyangena. 2009. "Economic impact of climate change in the East African Community." Report prepared by Global 21 with funding from GTZ for the East African Community, Arusha. Available online at http://www.eacgermany.org/index.php/documents-and-studies/doc_download/2-economic-impact-of-climate-change-in-the-east-african-community

This paper gives an assessment of various sectors of the East African community to climate change: lake level volatility in the East African lakes (Edward, Albert, Kivu, Victoria, Tanganyika and Malawi); glacial and ice retreat on Kilimanjaro and in the Rwenzori mountains and Mount Kenya; pressures on forest biomes; the threat of sea level rise in Kenya and Tanzania (and warmer temperatures causing coral bleaching) and its impact on various economic sectors, including tourism, mining and fisheries; and the resurgence of malaria, particular in previously malaria-free highland areas, such as in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi; and the risk that climate change will hinder development progress to date, particularly given the dependence of livelihoods on natural resources. Of note, water stress is only likely in East Africa due to population increase, not due to climate change (which is actually projected to increase water availability).

Thornton, P.K., Jones, P.G., Owiyo, T., Kruska, R.L., Herrero, M., Kristjanson, P., Notenbaert, A., Bekele ,N .and A. Omolo, with contributions from Orindi, V., Otiende, B., Ochieng, A., Bhadwal, S., Anantram, K., Nair, S., Kumar, V. and Kulkar, U. 2006. "Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa." Report to the Department for International Development, Nairobi: ILRI. Available online at http://www.waterandclimateinformationcentre.org/resources/8012007_ILRI2006_mapping-climatevulnpovafrica.pdf

This report highlights vulnerability mapping for Africa in 2005/06, overlaying downscaled climate data from several GCMs under four different SRES growth scenarios with indicators of biophysical and social vulnerability. 14 indicators of biophysical and social vulnerability (three associated with natural capital, one with physical capital, two with social capital, six with human capital, and two with financial capital) were reduced to four components on the basis of statistical analysis, which were then used to construct one overall indicator of vulnerability. Among the “hotspot” areas, where high exposure to climate change intersects with high biophysical and social vulnerability, are the mixed arid-semi-arid systems in the Sahel, arid-semi-arid rangeland systems in parts of eastern Africa, the systems in the Great Lakes region of eastern Africa, the coastal regions of eastern Africa, and many of the drier zones of southern Africa. Contains nice spatial representations of various indicators. This study was undertaken to prioritize resources under DFID’s commitment to addressing climate change.

Vincent, K. 2004. "Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa." Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Working Paper 56. Available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/content/creating-index-social-vulnerability-climate-change-africa

This paper outlines an index to empirically assess relative levels of human vulnerability to climate change-induced variations in water availability and allow cross-country comparison in Africa. The theory-driven aggregate index of human vulnerability is formed through the weighted average of five composite sub-indices: economic well-being and stability (20%), demographic structure (20%), institutional stability and strength of public infrastructure (40%), global interconnectivity (10%) and dependence on natural resources (10%). Using 2002-03 data, East African countries rank in the following positions out of 49, where 1 is the most vulnerable and 49 the least vulnerable: Burundi (3rd), Uganda (6th), Ethiopia (7th), Tanzania (10th), Rwanda (13th), Eritrea (18th), Kenya (30th), and Djibouti (49th).

Wheeler, D. 2011. "Quantifying vulnerability to climate change: Implications for adaptation assistance." Center for Global Development Working Paper 240, Washington DC. Available online at http://www.cgdev.org/content/publications/detail/1424759/

This paper quantifies vulnerability for 233 global states, based on indicators for increasing weather-related disasters, sea-level rise, and the loss of agricultural productivity. It then looks at the implications of these for the cost-effective allocation of adaptation assistance.

4. Sector-based vulnerability assessments

a. Agriculture

Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Crauford, P. and A. Kassam. 2007. "Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change." Climatic Change 83:381–399. Available online at http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~charlie/ccrg.d/talks.d/session1.d/ccrg_challinor.pdf

This paper looks at three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. They also discuss the variability in magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa, whilst highlighting how most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa.

Kandji, S.T. and L.V. Verchot. Undated. "Impacts of and adaptation to climate variability and climate change in the East African Community: A focus on the agricultural sector." Nairobi: World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). Available online at http://www.worldagroforestry.org/downloads/publications/ PDFs/RP07172.pdf

This report is one of a series of ICRAF outputs aimed at discussing the vulnerability of African countries to climate hazards, with a specific focus on Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (the East African Community countries). It presents climate trends, existing status of national and local level coping, the multiple driving forces of vulnerability, and concludes with some policy recommendations.

Mongi, H., Majule, A.E. and J.G. Lyimo. 2010. "Vulnerability and adaptation of rain-fed agricultural to climate change and variability in semi-arid Tanzania." African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 4 (6): 371-381. Available online at http://www.ajol.info/index.php/ajest/article/viewFile/ 56374/44809

This paper assess vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture to climate change in four village clusters in the Tabora region of Tanzania (Mbola, Mpenge and Isila from Uyui District) and one from the Tabora district (Tumbi), comparing perceptions gleaned through social science research with simple regression and t-test analyses of numeric data for rainfall and temperature collected over the last 35 growing seasons. Results indicate that the overall rainfall amount was found to decline while distribution was varying both in time and space, and temperature (both minima and maxima) has increased. Major implications on rain fed agriculture are possible shrinking of the growing season, increasing moisture and heat stress to common food and cash crops, increased insects and pests and eventually low income and food insecurity.

b. Livestock

Galvin, K.A., Thornton, P.K., Boone, R.B. and J. Sunderland. 2004. "Climate variability and impacts on east African livestock herders: the Maasai of Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania." African Journal of Range and Forage Science 21 (3): 183-189. Available online at http://warnercnr.colostate.edu/~rboone/docs/Galvin_Climate_Maasai.pdf

This paper links a household model (PHEWS) with an ecosystem model (SAVANNA) to investigate the effects of drought and a series of wet years on the well-being of Maasai pastoralists. Results show that the ecosystem if quite resilient and the Maasai of the Ngorongoro Conservation Area are not very vulnerable to climate variability, but the precarious economic situation means that drought does tend to have a negative effect.

Kirkbride, M. and R. Grahn. 2008. "Survival of the fittest. Pastoralism and climate change in East Africa." Oxfam Briefing paper no 116. Oxford: Oxfam. Available online at http://www.oxfam.org/policy/bp116-pastoralism-climate-change-0808

This paper explores the ways in pastoral livelihoods are affected by the interaction of multiple stresses: climate change: climate change, political and economic marginalization, inappropriate development policies, and increasing resource competition. A number of case studies are provided from East African, since significant proportions of GDP are made up by pastoralism in these countries. In keeping with the advocacy aims of the publishing organization, the paper concludes with recommendations for East African governments in addressing these challenges through supporting sustainable livelihoods.

c. Health

MARA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) (1998). "Towards an Atlas of Malaria Risk in Africa." MARA/ARMA, Durban. Online at http://www.mara.org.za/trview_e.htm#Malaria Distribution Model

Hay, S.I., Tatem, A.J., Guerra, C.A., Snow, R.W. "Population at malaria risk in Africa: 2005, 2015 and 2030." Paper prepared for the UK Government’s Foresight project. Available online at http://users.ox.ac.uk/~hay/077.pdf

This paper outlines simulations of the combined effects of climate change, population growth and urbanization on the population at risk (PAR) of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa, showing that the PAR will change from approximately 0.63 billion in 2005, to 0.87 billion in 2015 and 1.15 billion in 2030 (data are also presented sequentially by influence, as well as in combination). Includes (coarse resolution) maps to show distribution of risk within East Africa.">

Hay, S.I., Guerra, C.A., Gething, P.W., Patil, A.P., Tatem, A.J., Noor, A.M., Kabaria, C.W., Manh, B.H., Elyazar, I.R.F., Brooker, S.J., Smith, D.L., Moyeed, R.A., Snow, R.W. (2009). "A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007." PLoS Medicine, 6(3): e1000048. Available online at http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000048

This paper describes the generation of a new world map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for 2007. Population at risk estimates, adjusted for the transmission-modifying effects of urbanization in Africa, found that of the 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria, 0.69 billion were found in Central and South East Asia (CSE Asia), 0.66 billion in Africa, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia (Africa+), and 0.04 billion in the Americas. High endemicity was widespread in the Africa+ region, where 0.35 billion people are at this level of risk. The paper is also based on a dataset and maps made publicly available by the Malaria Atlas Project

Lindsay, S.W. and W.J. Martens. 1998. "Malaria in the African highlands: past, present and future." Bulletin of the World Health Organization 76 (1): 33-45. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ pubmed/9615495

This paper is one of many that highlight how climate change will allow the area at risk of malaria to increase, particularly at altitude, as places previously too cold for the anopheles mosquito come within its possible habitat. It outlines a mathematical model designed to identify endemic-prone regions in the African highlands and the differences expected to occur as a result of climate change.

Tonnang, H.E., Kangalawe, R.Y. and P.Z. Yanda. 2010. "Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa." Malaria Journal 23 (9): 111. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20416059

This paper provides spatial representations of the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of malaria vectors (Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis) in relation to various climatic factors, including temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity, in combination with an ecoclimatic index under three climate change scenarios. Their results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments.

Trærup, S. L. M., R. A. Ortiz and A. Markandya (2010) "The Health Impacts of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania." BC3 Working Paper Series 2010-01. Bilbao: Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3). Available online at http://www.bc3research.org/working_papers/view.html

This paper provides empirical evidence to support the claim that the incidence of cholera is linked to environmental and socioeconomic factors. It integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania, and uses socioeconomic data to control for impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. Based on these results, they can estimate the number and costs of additional cholera cases and deaths that can be attributed to climate change by year 2030 in Tanzania. The results show a significant relationship between cholera cases and temperature and predict an increase in the initial risk ratio for cholera in Tanzania in the range of 23 to 51 percent for a 1 degree Celsius increase in annual mean temperature. The cost of reactive adaptation to cholera attributed to climate change impacts by year 2030 in Tanzania is projected to be in the range of 0.02 to 0.09 percent of GDP for the lower and upper bounds respectively. Total costs, including loss of lives are estimated in the range of 1.4 to 7.8 percent of GDP by year 2030.

van Lieshout, M., Kovats, R.S., Livermore, M. and Martens. P. 2004. "Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios." Global Environmental Change 14(1): 87-99. Available online at http://www.geography.ryerson.ca/jmaurer/716art/716Climatechgmalaria.pdf

This paper presents the results of a global model of malaria transmission (MIASMA v.2.2) that was developed to estimate the potential impact of climate change on seasonal transmission and populations at risk of the disease. Using the model HadCM3 with four SRES emissions scenarios: A1FI, A2, B1 and B2, the additional population at risk was determined under each of the SRES population scenarios by downscaling national estimates to the 0.5×0.5° scale grid and re-aggregating by region. Additional population at risk due to climate change are projected in East Africa, central Asia, China and areas around the southern limit of the distribution in South America. Taking vulnerability as reflecting both socio-economic status (as a measure of adaptive capacity), and malaria control status, climate-induced changes in the potential distribution of malaria is projected in East Africa.

Wandiga, S.O., Opondo, M., Olago, D., Githeko, A., Githui, F., Marshall, M., Downs, T., Opere, A., Oludhe, C., Ouma, G.O., Yanda, P.Z., Kangalawe, R., Kabumbuli, R., Kathuri, J., Apindi, E., Olaka, L., Ogallo, L., Mugambi, P., Sigalla, R., Nanyunja, R., Baguma, T., Achola, P. 2006. "Vulnerability to climate induced Highland malaria in East Africa." AIACC Working Paper no 25. Available online at http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/working_papers.html

In addition to looking at the relationship between areas at risk of malaria and wet conditions, this report focuses on the socio-economic factors that drive vulnerability to malaria, including poverty, and inadequate warning mechanisms. This report was produced by the Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change (AIACC) project. AIACC was a global initiative of UNEP/WMO IPCC, funded by the Global Environment Facility, and implemented by UNEP, START and the Third World Academy of Sciences to advance scientific understandings of climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options in developing countries. Although this is the most East Africa-specific output, other working papers and publications are also available on the website. Many, like this one, have subsequently been published in peer-reviewed journals (this one in Climatic Change, volume 99).

Yanda, P.Z., Kangalawe, R.Y.M. and R.J. Sigalla. 2005. "Climatic and socio-economic influenced on malaria and cholera risks in the Lake Victoria region of Tanzania." AIACC working paper no 12. Available online at http://www.aiaccproject.org/working_papers/Working%20Papers/AIACC_WP_No012.pdf

This paper shows that the vulnerability and impact of climate change-induced malaria and cholera are influenced by the socioeconomic characteristics of the different communities, based on two case studies of Tanzania. Findings from this study show that the majority of respondents had similar perceptions regarding the causes and seriousness of malaria, factors that influence its severity, and how the disease can be controlled or treated, regardless of their levels of education or wealth. The study found that women, children, and the elderly are more vulnerable to malaria; which relates to their differential access to bed nets and, in the case of women, their exposure through weeding the bean fields.

Zhou G, Minakawa N, Githeko AK, Yan G. 2004. "Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African Highlands." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 (8): 2375-80. Available online at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/14983017

While there had hitherto been some controversy over the link between climate change and the reemergence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the East African highlands, this paper concludes that climate variability (i.e. short term fluctuations around the mean climate state) may be more relevant than temperature change. Using a nonlinear mixed regression model to investigate the association between autoregression (number of malaria outpatients during the previous time period), seasonality and climate variability, and the number of monthly malaria outpatients of the past 10-20 years in seven highland sites in East Africa, 65-81% of the variance in the number of monthly malaria outpatients was explained.

Other data sources for health: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University's Lamont Dougherty Earth Observatory has climate data that are used to illustrate models of climate suitability for seasonal endemic malaria, and recent climate conditions, such as rainfall anomalies, which may be associated with epidemic malaria in warm semi-arid regions of Africa (but for the malaria data they rely on MARA and MAP). http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Health/ .Regional/.Africa/.Malaria

d. Energy

Byakola, T. and P. Mukheibir. "Energy systems: Vulnerability-Adaptation-Resilience. Uganda." Paris: Helio International. Available online at http://www.helio-international.org/uploads/VARUganda.En.pdf

Over 80% of Ugandan households use firewood for cooking, and another 15.2% use charcoal, meaning biomass makes up 94% of the energy consumed in Uganda. Climate change will put pressure on the availability of natural resources for energy, and has already led to a substantial drop in energy generated by hydropower (due to fluctuations in the level of Lake Victoria), and led to rationing. The distribution system is also vulnerable, particularly due to the centralized nature of the dam-based facilities. The lack of diversification contributes to energy vulnerability, although there are plans to exploit oil resources in Uganda by 2013. Other options suggested to reduce energy vulnerability include promotion of small scale rural-based bioenergy technologies (biogas, cogeneration etc), installing smaller and decentralized energy schemes, and expanding investment in renewable.

Casmiri, D. 2009. "Energy systems: Vulnerability-Adaptation-Resilience. Tanzania." Paris: Helio International. Available online at http://www.helio-international.org/VARTanzania.En.pdf

Biomass is the main energy source in Tanzania, whilst hydropower contributes about 60% of electricity generation. This is already insufficient to meet demands, which are projected to increase between 11-13% in the near future, and drought and insufficient rainfall have already brought about power shedding. Climate change is likely to exacerbate this problem due to reduced water flow in the Pangani River (where three dams are situated). Suggested recommendations to address this are the promotion of renewable energy, having in place emergency repair plans, and recognizing the value of water.

Connor, H., Mqadi, L., Mukheibir, P., Thorne, S. and L.E. Williamson. 2007. "A preliminary assessment of energy and ecosystem resilience in ten African countries." Paris: Helio International. Available online at http://www.helio-international.org/Report.En.Final.pdf

This paper is an overview of energy vulnerability as part of Helio International’s ten country Vulnerability-Adaptation-Resilience methodology-based studies, three of which took place in east Africa (Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda).

Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa (AFREPREN/FWD). 2009. "Large Scale Hydropower, Renewable Energy and Adaptation to Climate Change: Climate Change and Energy Security in East and Horn of Africa." Nairobi: Heinrich Boell Foundation. Available online at http://www.boell.or.ke/downloads/RenewableEnergyandAdaptationtoClimateChangePublication.pdf

This paper calls for urgent investigation into renewable energy due to high climate vulnerability of energy systems in East Africa, evidenced by the recent drought-induced shortages faced by Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Ethiopia.

Kirai, P. 2009. "Energy systems: Vulnerability-Adaptation-Resilience. Kenya." Paris: Helio International. Available online at http://www.helio-international.org/VARKenya.En.pdf

Sixty percent of electricity comes from hydropower, and with demand growing at 7% per year (although less than 20% of the country have access), supply has been unable to meet demand. The majority of the population use biomass for energy, leading to widespread overexploitation of natural resources. Reduced rainfall has resulted in increased thermal generation and a rise in electricity costs, whilst flooding has disrupted energy transport systems. The paper recommends a number of measures to reduce energy vulnerability under climate change, including diversification of sources and improved efficiency.

e. Coasts

Kebede, A.S., Hanson, S., Nicholls, R.J. and M. Mokrech. 2010. "Impacts of climate change and sea-level rise: a case study of Mombasa, Kenya." Tyndall Working Paper no 146. Available online at http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/twp146.pdf

This paper presents a GIS-based quantitative estimate of the exposure and risks under climate change faced by Mombasa, East Africa’s largest port. The current exposure to a 1 in 100 year extreme water level for the whole of Mombasa district is estimated at 190,000 people and US$470 million in assets. Currently about 60 percent of this exposure is concentrated in the Mombasa Island division of the city where about 117,000 people (2005 estimate) live below 10m elevation. By 2080, the exposure could grow to over 380,000 people and US$15 billion in assets assuming the well-known A1B sea-level and socioeconomic scenario.

f. Water

Arnell, N. W. 2004. "Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and the socio-economic scenarios." Global Environmental Change 14 (1): 31-52. http://mfs.uchicago.edu/troubledwaters/readings/arnell.pdf

This seminal paper provides information on projections of water availability under the major SRES scenarios (taking into account population growth and economic trajectories) based on six models. Although this paper is global in emphasis, the maps provided give an indication of changes projected in East African watersheds.

Beekman, H.E., Abu-Zeid, K., Afouda, A., Hughes, S., Kane, A., Kulindwa, K.A., Odada, E.O., Opere, A., Oyebande, L. and I.C. Saayman. 2005. "Facing the facts: assessing the vulnerability of Africa’s water resources to global environmental change." Nairobi: UNEP. Available online at http://water.cedare.int/cedare.int/files15%5CFile2787.pdf

This report applies a particular vulnerability assessment methodology to all the international river basins in Africa, including the Lake Victoria and Rufiji river basins in East Africa.

g. Forestry

There is a notable absence of vulnerability assessments of forest ecosystems in East Africa, partly due to the small spatial extent of forests in this region relative to elsewhere (for example the tropical forest belt of central Africa).

5. Small-scale vulnerability assessments

Deressa, T.G., Hassan, R.M. and C. Ringler. 2009. "Assessing household vulnerability to climate change: The case of farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia." IFPRI Discussion Paper 00935, Washington DC: IFPRI. Available online at http://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/ifpridp00935.pdf

This paper takes an economic approach, equating vulnerability with poverty and measuring it based on an estimation of the probability that a given shock or set of shocks will move household consumption below a given minimum level (such as the consumption poverty line) or force the consumption level to stay below the given minimum if it is already below this level. Using a household survey of farmers during the 2004-05 production year, results show that the farmers’ vulnerability is highly sensitive to their minimum daily requirement (poverty line). The results further indicate that farmers in kola agro-ecological zones (which are warm and semi-arid) are the most vulnerable to extreme climatic events.

Deressa, T. D., Hassan, R.M. and C. Ringler. 2008. "Measuring Ethiopian Farmers’ Vulnerability to Climate Change Across Regional States", IFPRI Discussion Paper No. 806, Washington DC. Available online at http://www.ifpri.org/pubs/dp/ifpridp00806.asp

This paper analyses the vulnerability of farmers to climate change in Ethiopia through the development of a vulnerability index that is then used to compare regions within the country. The results indicate that the semi-arid and arid regions, and those characterized by recurrent drought, are most vulnerable, namely Afar, Somali, Oromia and Tigray.

Eriksen, S. H., Brown, K. and P.M Kelly. 2005. "The dynamics of vulnerability: locating coping strategies in Kenya and Tanzania." The Geographical Journal 171(4): 287-305. Available online at http://www.uea.ac.uk/~f030/papers/gj2005.pdf

This paper outlines differences in vulnerability between smallholders farmers at two locations in Kenya and Tanzania; finding that where one individual can specialize in an economic activity within the context of diversification within the household, they are less likely to be vulnerable. This shows a gendered element, as typically women are less able to specialize due to a combination of time pressures and lack of skills.

Riché, B., Hachileka, E., Awuor, C.B. and A. Hammill. 2009. "Climate related vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Ethiopia’s Borana and Somali Communities. Final Assessment Report." Save the Children UK, CARE, IUCN and IISD. Available online at ttp://www.iisd.org/pdf/2010/climate_ethiopia_communities.pdf

This study uses CARE’s Community Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Tool to determine the level of vulnerability of two pastoral communities in the Borana and Shinile zones of Ethiopia, which are exposed to recurrent droughts. The magnitude and rate of climate change, combined with environmental, social and political issues, means that many coping strategies are now unsustainable and new adaptation options must be embraced to ensure sustainability of livelihoods in this area.